The Economist: It Would Take Russia 103 Years to Fully Occupy Ukraine at Current Rate

The Economist has calculated that if the Russian offensive continues at its current pace, Russia would need until June 2030 to completely occupy Ukraine’s Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and it would take another 103 years to capture the whole of Ukraine.

“Since the battle lines stabilised after Ukraine’s first counteroffensive ended in October 2022, they have barely moved. No large city has changed hands. At the pace of the past 30 days, seizing what remains of the four regions Mr Putin already claims – Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia – would take until June 2030. (For Russia to occupy all of Ukraine would require a further 103 years.)”

Since May this year, when it launched a large-scale frontline offensive, Russia has captured only 0.4% of Ukrainian territory according to The Economist’s calculations and has not achieved any serious objectives.

The Economist said Russia is paying a huge price for minimal gains on the battlefield.

“Our meta-estimate suggests that, from the beginning of the full-scale invasion to January of this year, Russian casualties amounted to 640,000-877,000 soldiers, of whom 137,000-228,000 have died. By 13 October, those totals had risen by almost 60%, to 984,000-1,438,000 casualties, including 190,000-480,000 dead.

Our rough calculations suggest that the soldiers killed in the war amount to 0.5%-1.2% of Russia’s pre-war cohort of men under the age of 60, compared to 0.6%-1.3% for Ukraine, taking UA losses’ record of dead, and dead plus missing, as a starting guess”.

A sudden breakthrough of Ukraine’s defensive lines is unlikely, since “surveillance, coupled with long-range precision weaponry, has made massing forces near the front suicidal”, The Economist believes. However, incremental successes remain possible – albeit at a huge cost – by sending small groups of fighters into the death zone to capture advanced positions.

“If Western backing for Ukraine holds, the war may well grind on at enormous cost, with Russia gaining ground only slowly.

But Russia’s ability to fight on at today’s pace may also be coming to an end. And if Mr Putin pushes on regardless, he would be running another risk. After three years of thwarted offensives, a sudden collapse may become more likely in the Russian war economy than in Ukraine’s defensive lines”.

Source: The Economist